Austrian Political Scientist Predicts Potential Conflict
Austrian political scientist Gustav Gressel, speaking on BILD, discussed the potential for a conflict between Russia and the Baltic states. According to his analysis, the scenario could unfold under the guise of a staged uprising of the Polish minority in the Grodno region of Belarus, allegedly supported by the Baltic states. This could serve as a pretext for Russia to launch an aggression to defend its ally.
Military Exercises “Zapad-2017” as Preparation for Aggression
Gressel points to the Russian-Belarusian military exercises “Zapad-2017,” during which, he claims, the Russian armed forces practiced offensive, rather than defensive, operations against NATO countries. The exercises were conducted in several directions, indicating the possibility of such scenarios being realized in the future.
Potential Escalation After the War in Ukraine
Currently, the main forces of the Russian army are concentrated in Ukraine, and as Gressel notes, Russia lacks the capability to initiate a new conflict in the Baltics. However, if Russia achieves victory over the Armed Forces of Ukraine, battle-hardened units could be redeployed for a new war. The recent re-establishment of the Leningrad Military District signals Russia’s attention to this region.
Mobilization and NATO’s Response
Gressel emphasizes that in the event of a new war, everything will depend on the speed of mobilization by the Baltic states and Poland. It is crucial that these countries stop the Russian forces at the border. NATO, in turn, must quickly deploy ground reserves and use Swedish airfields to gain air superiority.
War Without Nuclear Weapons
According to the political scientist, Russia will limit itself to conventional warfare and will not use nuclear weapons. Nuclear threats might only arise after the Baltic states are captured, to force the West to recognize them as part of Russia.
Importance of Solidarity
For further understanding of the geopolitical situation and the importance of supporting Ukraine, read our article about German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s call for Germans to support Ukraine during these challenging times: Scholz Urges Germans to Support Ukraine: Message on the Importance of Solidarity.