According to calculations by former Pentagon official and Foreign Affairs columnist Elaine McCusker, a Russian victory in the war against Ukraine would cost the United States seven times more than continuing military support for Kyiv. In her analysis, McCusker highlights that Ukraine’s defeat would force the US to spend an additional $808 billion on defense over five years. For comparison, since 2022, US assistance to Ukraine has amounted to $112 billion.
The Price of Ukraine’s Defeat
McCusker emphasizes that if Russia wins, its military activity will intensify, and its positions along NATO’s borders will strengthen significantly. This would pose a serious threat to Eastern Europe, compelling the US and its allies to increase defense spending substantially. The required investments would include boosting troop numbers, constructing aircraft, submarines, air defense systems, and fortifying military infrastructure in Europe.
By contrast, continuing support for Ukraine would significantly reduce future US expenses. Kyiv’s success would not only neutralize Russian aggression but also allow the United States to focus on strategic challenges in the Pacific region, where China’s influence is growing.
Calls for Increased Support for Ukraine
The George W. Bush Presidential Center has also published recommendations on US policy toward Ukraine, urging the doubling of financial and military aid to Kyiv. In its report, the center’s analysts stress the importance of accelerating deliveries of advanced weaponry and making this a priority for the new administration.
The report argues that strengthening support for Ukraine is not only a way to halt Russian aggression but also an opportunity to avoid massive future defense expenditures.
Ukraine Awaits Changes in Washington
Meanwhile, The New York Times reports that Ukraine has delayed signing an agreement with Joe Biden’s administration regarding the use of key mineral resources. According to journalists, this delay may be linked to expectations of potential shifts in US policy if Donald Trump takes office in 2025.
Ukraine has emphasized the development of 20 key minerals, including lithium, which is crucial for battery technologies. These reserves, valued at $11.5 trillion, could be particularly attractive to Trump’s allies, such as businessman Elon Musk.
The delay in finalizing the agreement could indicate Ukraine’s anticipation of more favorable conditions or changes in priorities under a new US administration. At the same time, it underscores Ukraine’s critical role as a geopolitical partner for Washington and its allies in countering Russia’s growing aggression.
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For more details on the threats posed by Russian aggression and the challenges for NATO, read our article: “The Growing Threat of Direct NATO-Russia Confrontation: New Challenges for the West”.