Ukrainian Drones Targeting Russian Refineries: Impact on Oil Market

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In the first quarter of 2024, at least seven Russian refineries ceased operations due to attacks by Ukrainian drones. This information is reported by Reuters agency.

According to agency estimates, the attacks caused seven plants to halt processing 4.6 million tons of oil, which represents 7% of the total volume.

One of the latest refineries to halt its operations is the Kuibyshev Refinery located in Novokuibyshevsk, Samara Oblast. The plant was targeted by drone attacks on the night of March 23.

According to Reuters sources, after the attack, the refinery suspended operations of its CDU-5 oil processing unit, resulting in a halving of the enterprise’s productivity.

Head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) Andriy Maliuk disclosed that 13 successful attacks were carried out on Russian refineries. Operations are executed using long-range drones, and oil extraction and processing have already been reduced by 12%.

“We have conducted several successful operations within enemy territory. I want to emphasize that it is through the export of oil products that Russia replenishes its budget: it constitutes practically one-third of their budget and a significant portion of the military budget,” he stated in an interview with ICTV.

Following these events, the oil market unfolds in a new context. The noticeable decrease in the production of oil products such as gasoline and diesel fuel may impact fuel prices in Russia and compel the export of crude oil that was previously refined, thereby reducing global oil prices and consequently the aggressor state’s revenues. This also opens up opportunities for diplomatic maneuvers and negotiations in the energy sector.

Ukrainian drones continue to be a key tool in confronting Russian oil facilities. However, how long they can sustain such pressure and how Russia will react to these attacks are questions worth attention in the future. It is certain that the affected plants will require many imported parts for restoration, which are prohibited from being sold to Russia due to sanctions. Therefore, their restoration may be problematic.