Russia has launched a large-scale offensive in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, confirming earlier warnings by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. According to Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, the number of Russian assault operations in the region has nearly doubled in recent days.
“Despite ongoing diplomatic talks, we’re witnessing only an increase in the intensity of offensive actions,” Syrskyi told reporters. He emphasized that Russian forces are trying to create a buffer zone in the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions, and that Moscow’s mobilization potential is immense — with around 5 million men readily available and up to 20 million overall.
Countering Russian Disinformation and Military Moves
Syrskyi also refuted a recent New York Times report that claimed he had redeployed brigades from southern Ukraine during the 2023 counteroffensive to strengthen the fight around Bakhmut. In an interview with LB.ua, he admitted to conducting operations south of Bakhmut, but with only two brigades — not five, as reported.
“If we had five brigades, both Bakhmut and Soledar would likely have been liberated,” Syrskyi said. He added that the aim of the operation was to cut off the three main supply routes used by Russian forces — a move that could have forced the enemy to retreat on its own.
Ukrainian Drone Takes Down Russian Strategic Bomber
Syrskyi also confirmed that Ukrainian forces recently destroyed a Russian Tu-22M3 long-range bomber using a drone. The aircraft had just landed when it was struck. The estimated cost of the bomber is around $100 million.
Other Key Highlights from Syrskyi’s Statements:
- Only four people were aware of Ukraine’s planned offensive in the Kursk region. Syrskyi personally visited every unit involved to explain the mission and legal basis for it.
- North Korean troops are reportedly being trained and deployed in Russia in waves.
- Ukraine is seeing progress in domestic production of artillery, electronic warfare systems, and drones. New fiber-optic FPV drones with 20 km cables are expected to scale up in the coming months, significantly reducing Russia’s battlefield advantage.
- Every Russian military exercise serves a hidden purpose — often to mask the formation of new assault groups.
- Russia and Belarus are planning joint military drills this fall. Ukrainian officials warn that the 2022 invasion scenario could repeat itself under the guise of training exercises.
- Ukraine needs to mobilize around 30,000 troops each month. About 6 million men have not updated their military data with territorial enlistment offices. Syrskyi believes digitalization will help track and reach eligible citizens more effectively.
- U.S. support for Ukraine has declined. Kyiv is now mainly receiving military aid from European allies.
April–May: Key Months for New Russian Offensive
According to Ihor Zhovkva, Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Russia may escalate its offensive in April and May after regrouping forces that recently fought in the Kursk region and deploying additional reserves. He expects attacks near Pokrovsk, Kupiansk, Lyman, and southern areas including Zaporizhzhia and Novopavlivka.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are reinforcing defenses near Sumy, where intelligence suggests Russian troops may attempt an advance toward the village of Loknya. Attacks on Kharkiv and incursions into Chernihiv region are also possible.
Low Chance of Russian Breakthrough in Sumy – Analysts Say
While the Sumy region remains the most likely direction for a new Russian push, its chances of success appear limited. The Telegraph reports that Russia’s efforts to seize more territory are increasingly futile, given massive equipment losses — around 3,000 tanks and 9,000 armored vehicles — and reliance on poorly trained infantry.
Even minor gains are unlikely to shift the broader dynamics of the war. With Ukraine’s effective use of drones and precision strikes, Russian troops will struggle to mass in large enough numbers to breach Ukrainian lines.