The Russian regime, which launched an unprecedented aggression against Ukraine, is now facing serious challenges not only on the battlefield but also in its economic sphere. British journalist Ambrose Evans-Pritchard of The Telegraph suggests that while Ukraine struggles on the frontlines, Russia is losing the economic war. According to his analysis, Russia’s current economic state resembles the Soviet Union’s collapse just before its disintegration.
Overheated Economy and Historical Parallels
Evans-Pritchard compares Russia’s modern economy to the German model during World War I. He highlights that Russia’s war-driven economy bears striking similarities to Germany’s in 1917 when its system collapsed under resource exhaustion and an Allied blockade.
While Putin’s regime has not yet reached a breaking point, its deep reliance on energy exports leaves it vulnerable to external economic shocks. This dependency increasingly mirrors the weaknesses that led to the Soviet Union’s demise.
Saudi Arabia’s Role as a Key Player
A crucial factor in this scenario is Saudi Arabia’s decision-making. Evans-Pritchard notes that Riyadh’s move to lower oil prices could prove catastrophic for Russia. If the price of oil drops below $40 per barrel, Moscow’s economic stability will crumble. Such a downturn would severely undermine the Kremlin’s ability to finance its military efforts and maintain internal order.
The journalist emphasizes that the ongoing war in Ukraine could see an unexpected turning point in Saudi Arabia. Changes in global oil pricing policies could undermine the foundations of Russia’s economy, weakening its war capabilities and reshaping the dynamics of the conflict.
The End of Putin’s Era?
Evans-Pritchard points out that Putin’s regime is gradually losing its grip. While it’s too early to declare its demise, historical parallels with the Soviet Union’s collapse are becoming increasingly evident. Western sanctions, which limit Russia’s access to critical technologies and capital, combined with falling oil prices, could trigger irreversible consequences.
The war that was meant to showcase Russia’s strength has instead revealed its vulnerabilities. Economic pressure from the international community, compounded by poor governance within the country, is gradually pushing Russia closer to a fate resembling that of the USSR.
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