Analysis of the Current Situation: Russia Seeks to Change Power in Ukraine Through Trump’s Influence
According to a report by the respected The Moscow Times, citing its own sources within diplomatic circles and those close to the Kremlin, Russia is altering its strategy regarding Ukraine. While the Kremlin previously publicly declared goals of “denazification” and “demilitarization,” sources now indicate that the primary objective is the removal of the current President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Maximalist and Minimalist Goals Remain, but Focus Shifts to Discrediting Zelenskyy
Sources reveal that the Kremlin’s maximum goal remains the complete capitulation of Ukraine, a change in political regime, the installation of a puppet government following a Russian blueprint, and the transformation of the country into something resembling modern-day Belarus – entirely dependent on Moscow. The minimum goal is to solidify control over the four temporarily occupied Ukrainian regions while limiting Kyiv’s political and military independence.
However, at this stage, the Kremlin’s main bet is on a third option: discrediting Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the eyes of the newly elected US President Donald Trump as a non-viable negotiating partner.
“Intolerable Pressure from Washington”: Kremlin’s Plan to Force Ukraine into Elections
An individual close to the Kremlin stated that the current task is to “achieve intolerable pressure from Washington” on Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The aim is to force Kyiv to hold presidential elections, in which Moscow hopes Zelenskyy will not be re-elected. “Zelenskyy will not make territorial concessions. We need to solve the problem at its root – for him to leave,” the source told The Moscow Times.
Putin’s Personal Dislike for Zelenskyy as an Escalating Factor
Separately, sources emphasize Vladimir Putin’s personal animosity towards Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “He threw down a challenge to Putin. One of our tasks is to ensure he no longer heads Ukraine. Therefore, we are methodically promoting the thesis of his illegitimacy and the necessity of elections,” explained one diplomat. The Kremlin believes the current Ukrainian leader cannot win another term and is actively seeking arguments to convince the US administration of the need for a change of power in Kyiv.
Negotiations at a Standstill: Any Concessions Seen as a “Gift to Zelenskyy”
A Russian diplomat underscored that as long as Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains in power, Vladimir Putin is not ready for any serious concessions in negotiations. “Any concession now would look like a gift to Zelenskyy, not to Trump. This is unacceptable,” he stated.
US Reaction: Trump Favors Peace Talks, but Opposes External Governance
Amid these reports, US State Department representative Tammy Bruce stated during a briefing that the Donald Trump administration envisions a peaceful resolution in Ukraine through a complete ceasefire and direct negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv. Simultaneously, the US strongly opposes the idea of imposing temporary UN-led governance in Ukraine, a scenario previously floated by Russian representatives.
“We are working with the understanding that negotiations will require Russia and Ukraine to make tough decisions and compromises. And we are working with Russia and Ukraine, and we intend to continue our work to bring them to the negotiating table,” Tammy Bruce emphasized. She stressed that Russia’s idea of temporary governance has not received Trump’s approval: “Ukraine is a constitutional democracy. Governance in Ukraine is determined by its Constitution and the Ukrainian people.”
Trump Ready for Tough Measures Against Russia if “Peace Deal” Collapses
US President Donald Trump stated his hope for a deal with Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine and currently has no plans to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil. However, he made it clear that he is prepared to take such steps if Putin fails to uphold his promises regarding peace.
“I want him to keep his promise. If he doesn’t, I’ll put on tariffs just like I did with Venezuela,” Trump noted, adding that he also expects steps forward from Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Over the weekend, the US President expressed his “great anger” at Putin’s actions and threatened new sanctions, which, as Bloomberg noted, marked his harshest statement directed at the Kremlin since the start of his new presidential term. These remarks by Trump have already led to rising prices in global markets, particularly for WTI crude oil.
Russia Attempts to Accuse Ukraine of Ceasefire Violations
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that the Russian side has handed over to US National Security Advisor Waltz a list of targets allegedly attacked by Ukraine during the 30-day ceasefire. According to him, this list has also been sent to the UN. Lavrov maintains that Moscow “continues to adhere to the agreement, despite violations by Kyiv.” He also announced the preparation for a second meeting between Russian and US representatives.
Conclusion: A Complex Game Amidst War
The situation surrounding Ukraine remains highly tense. The Kremlin appears to be betting on a shift in Ukraine’s political landscape through its influence on the Donald Trump administration. Simultaneously, the US is showing a willingness for dialogue but firmly rejects Russian scenarios for external governance of Ukraine. The future course of events will depend on numerous factors, including Ukraine’s resilience, the stance of Western partners, and the willingness of all parties to make genuine compromises for the sake of establishing peace.
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