Unrealistic Goals and the U.S. Diplomatic Strategy
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth openly stated that the return of Ukraine to its 2014 borders seems unrealistic. At the same time, Washington does not view Ukraine’s NATO membership as an immediate prospect. These remarks indicate that the U.S. seeks to minimize the risks of conflict escalation and shift the issue toward diplomatic negotiations.
Washington believes that a peace agreement should provide security guarantees for Ukraine but does not envisage direct U.S. military presence. Instead, the proposal includes deploying international peacekeeping forces that would not be linked to NATO, thus avoiding direct confrontation with Russia. The intensification of sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, as well as lowering energy prices, are seen as key economic leverage against the Kremlin.
The European Factor and NATO’s Financial Responsibility
One of the U.S. demands is that EU countries increase their defense spending for NATO to 5% of GDP, up from the current 2%. This confirms a strategic shift in Washington’s approach to global security, with the U.S. attempting to transfer greater responsibility for Europe’s security to European countries themselves. Meanwhile, Trump and his team are negotiating with European allies about increasing arms purchases for Ukraine to ease the financial burden on the U.S. budget.
Trump’s Role: Talks with Putin and Strategy Toward Ukraine
Donald Trump, still considered a leading contender for the 2024 presidency, confirmed a phone conversation with Vladimir Putin. While no details of the conversation have been made public, Trump emphasized that Putin “wants an end to the deaths on the battlefield.” At the same time, his administration has suspended the development of a peace plan, and advisor Keith Kellogg is working on potential solutions for conflict resolution.
Trump’s team is intensifying diplomatic contacts, including meetings of special representative Kellogg with NATO leaders and U.S. allies at the Munich Security Conference. In Washington, it is believed that encouraging European states to more actively supply weapons to Ukraine would be the optimal way to support Kyiv without significantly increasing U.S. expenditures.
Zelensky: Military Mobilization and Red Lines for Kyiv
President Volodymyr Zelensky stresses that freezing the conflict would be a losing scenario, as it would allow Russia to regroup and renew its aggression. He also noted that holding elections under martial law is impossible, as it would weaken Ukraine’s defense.
Amid these developments, a new initiative is being considered in Ukraine to recruit young people into the army – a one-year contract with attractive terms: payment of 1 million hryvnias, free university education after military service, and special mortgage conditions. This move aims to strengthen the army’s personnel capacity, which is critically important in the context of a prolonged conflict.
Outlook: How Kyiv Can Leverage U.S. Political Maneuvers
Despite the hard “trade bullying” policy pursued by the Trump administration, Ukraine may find advantages in this situation. Since agreements have been reached between Kyiv and Washington on the development of Ukrainian natural resources, it would be illogical for the U.S. to impose high tariffs on these imports. This opens up opportunities for Kyiv to negotiate more flexible trade terms with the U.S.
In the long term, Ukraine’s main challenges remain ensuring sustained support from the West, strengthening its own defense capabilities, and developing realistic diplomatic scenarios for resolving the war that do not contradict the country’s strategic interests.